Dear "Aurora fans,"

      WOW! There has been an X-17 flare!! I believe this is tied with the most intense flare, ever!! Last time this happened, the aurora was clearly visible in Virginia!! c.f.

http://www.fifedrum.org/rhinohug/ANOTHERstorm.html

      The last time a flare of this magnitude occurred, it spawned the greatest negative Bz _ever_ recored by instruments (-74!!!!).  (As an aside, it is believed that the Bz reached -250 (!!!!) during "The Carrington Event"---circa 1859.  The aurora was visible in Singapore (1 degree north latitude)!!!!)

      I'm having trouble getting readings on what's going on---because this was also a "proton flare," meaning that it shot a huge number of relativistic protons (~80% the speed of light) toward the Earth, and that really "fries" the instruments.  (It's also not a really good time to go flying over the pole. :) )

      Here is what NASA has to say:

>3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Oct 28 at 22:00 UTC

>Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at high

>levels. Region 486 in particular, has potential to produce further major

>flare activity. An isolated major flare is also possible from Regions 484

>and 488.

>Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range

>from unsettled to potentially severe storming in the next 24 to 48 hours.

>Today's X17 flare produced a large and fast halo CME that will likely impact

>the Earth's magnetic field by midday on day one. Past events of this

>magnitude have almost always produced severe storming. The storm is expected

>to continue through at least the first half of day two. Unsettled to minor

>storm levels are expected on day three. The greater than 100 MeV proton

>event is expected to end by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton event

>will likely persist through day three.

      And here is what Learmonth has to say:

>Last updated 29 Oct 2003 00:00 UT

>SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 03/50

>ISSUED AT 28/2211Z OCTOBER 2003

>BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

>LARGE FLARE AND BRIGHT/FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION

>OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. MASS EJECTION WAS FULL-HALO

>INDICATING EARTH DIRECTED.

>INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED

>DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION

>FROM 29-30 OCTOBER 2003

>_____________________________________________________________

>GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

>29 Oct: Initially unsettled, storm levels second half UT day.

> Good chance for severe storm conditions.

>30 Oct: Initially at minor storm levels then declining.

>Note: activity associated with Warning 49 was much less than expected.

> This event was very large and has a much greater chance of

> inducing strong storm activity.

      I think the Learmonth bit says it _particularly_ well: The last few alerts have been, well . . . duds.  (And I _don't_ mean Duddits Clavell from Stephen King's "Dreamcatcher." :) ) And I wasn't the only one who has been fooled, lately---CNN's cover story was about the nigh-extraordinary recent levels of solar activity.  However, this one is an absolutely *EXTRAORDINARY* event---LEVEL 7 alert for the 29th, level 6 for the 30th!!

      The disturbance is expected to hit at 4 A.M. on the (American) East Coast.  This is 3 A.M. for Texas--and if in the unlikely chance that you're still up, Dr. Horton, I thought I'd let you know.  :) You very well may be able to see this one!! I expect this event to be visible for _EVERYONE_ ON THE LIST---that's what a LEVEL 7 alert means.

      I had some amusing anecdotes about Alaska, but stories about lessons (re)learned about tire pressure--and a cheerful woman having a conversation with no one in the local grocery store--just can't compete with this event! -Good [aurora] hunting!

                                          -John (Styers)

Explanation of alert levels:

Level 1 alert - 40% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and Connecticut

Level 2 alert - 60% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and Connecticut

Level 3 alert - 80% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and Connecticut, possible chance of a visible display in Central Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Level 4 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and Connecticut, 20% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania and central Ohio.

Level 5 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and Connecticut, 40% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania and central Ohio, and there is the possibility of a visible display in London--and on the outside chance, central Europe.

Level 6 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and Connecticut, 60-70% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania and central Ohio, 20-30% chance of a visible display in London, and approximately a 10% chance of a visible display in central Europe.

Level 7 alert - MAJOR OCCURRENCE, ~80% chance of display in Central Pennsylvania and Ohio.  Overhead displays possible in central Europe.  Possibility of visible displays in Texas, Louisiana, and--on very rare occasions, Mexico.  ( :O )

"**" essentially means, 100%. Now, for various technical reasons, take the above estimates, and multiply them by 1/2.

message: _WOW_!! THIS IS IT!! -LEVEL 7 ALERT!!!!

Note: "CC"'ed: kenb@fifedrum.org