Subject: RE: The storm is winding down/level 4 Halloween alert. :)
Hi John,
About 10:15 Thursday night I received a report from Laura that the
aurora was reported as visible in Rochester. Since Friday is the one day
I don't usually have to get up early, I dropped everything and headed
out to Braddocks Bay. Quite a few other people were already there with
the same idea. I'll have to look at the map, because the aurora was
visible, but in a direction that I thought to be west rather than north.
Maybe I was turned around.
It was not the big, brightly colored, pulsating aurora that people
photograph and rave about, but something rather more serene. Sofly
milky-silver rays, some reaching high, some less so, straight up from
the horizon, with a backdrop of stars - since I moved to the city I'd
forgotten there were so many stars, and one or two starkly naked trees
in the foreground for contrast. Very serene, very beautiful. A bit after
11 p.m. it started to fade, and I headed home.
I still want to see the high drama kind one of these days. Perhaps I'll
take a vacation on toward the northlands, some how some time.
With warm wishes,
*****
Subject: Re: The storm is winding down/level 4 Halloween alert. :)
dude, last night around 6:30 PM people were reporting seeing bright red
aurora visible from downdown rochester almost right overhead.
then, all night, it was visible north of the lake on the horizon.
***
On Fri, 31 Oct 2003, John M Styers wrote:
> Dear "Aurora fans,"
>
> The storm is (finally) winding down. I welcome reports of aurora
> viewing. :) There is still heightened activity going on, though; I am
> putting out a level 4 alert for the this evening. So, there is a
> possibility that some "trick-or-treaters" might be viewing the aurora
> tonight. :)
> Halloween is . . . interesting in the Interior. The average
> temperature for this time of year is about 15 to 35 below; so, one
> frequently sees something like a kid with a Batman costume on, with a
> parka over it. :) Today, oddly enough, we have this _nasty_ mix of sleet
> and freezing rain. They actually closed high schools because of it.
> -They won't close the school for 60 below, but they'll close it for a
> little freezing rain. Wussies. :) Another interesting thing that happens
> this time of year, is when the moose discover that there are lots and lots
> of pumpkins about. Moose _love_ pumpkims---so, they'll go down the
> street, eating every jack-o-latern they can find. And a moose doesn't
> seem to have a limit as to how many pumpkins he can eat. :P :) -Good
> [aurora] hunting!
>
>
>
>
> -John (Styers)
>
> Explanation of alert levels:
>
> Level 1 alert - 40% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and
> Connecticut
> Level 2 alert - 60% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and
> Connecticut
> Level 3 alert - 80% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and
> Connecticut, possible chance of a visible display in Central Pennsylvania
> and Ohio.
> Level 4 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and
> Connecticut, 20% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania and
> central Ohio.
> Level 5 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and
> Connecticut, 40% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania and
> central Ohio, and there is the possibility of a visible display in
> London--and on the outside chance, central Europe.
> Level 6 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and
> Connecticut, 60-70% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania
> and central Ohio, 20-30% chance of a visible display in London, and
> approximately a 10% chance of a visible display in central Europe.
> Level 7 alert - MAJOR OCCURRENCE, ~80% chance of display in Central
> Pennsylvania and Ohio. Overhead displays possible in central Europe.
> Possibility of visible displays in Texas, Louisiana, and--on very rare
> occasions, Mexico. ( :O )
>
> "**" essentially means, 100%. Now, for various technical reasons, take
> the above estimates, and multiply them by 1/2.
>
> _\|/_
> (o o)
> ------------oOO-{_}-OOo------------
> John Styers AA BS MS -One more to go!!
> Geophysical Institute (GI)
> University of Alaska, Fairbanks
> Office #708F
> Office Phone GI: 907-474-5747
> Email: fsjms@aurora.uaf.edu, rhinohug@fifedrum.org
>
> "State-mandated autopsy---the only diagnostic an American graduate student
> can afford."
>
> -John Styers
>
> An interesting statistic: "In 1994, American public high schools graduated
> 2 & 1/2 million students. Over one million of those graduates couldn't
> read their diplomas."
>
> -The U.S. Department of Education
>
--
*** ******, Director, Excelsior Brigade of Fifes and Drums
http://www.fifedrum.org/excelsior Fifer and Drummer
Webmaster of http://www.fifedrum.org Founded 1995
*********, ******, ********, ******, ********, ****, ****
Twin Cities Ancient Muster, Saturday September 18th, 2004!
Subject: Re: Here we go again. :) -Level 5 alert.
I forgot to report although you probably have lots of reports from
Rochester.
I could see faint funny looking clouds from my city backyard on whatever
night it was that it was in Texas around 8:00 pm! Went to a friend's
house in Webster and could see it from their front yard. Then went to a
park in Webster (even more secluded but not totally without light) and
watched it for about 20 minutes.
I went out later that evening, around 11:00, and there was nothing.
>From: John M Styers
>To: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
>CC:
>Subject: Here we go again. :) -Level 5 alert.
>Date: Mon, 3 Nov 2003 19:13:53 -0900 (AKST)
>
>Dear "Aurora fans,"
>
> Here we go again. :) Here is what NASA has to say:
>
> >-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Nov 2 at 22:00 UTC
> >Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate
to
>high
> >levels.
>
> >Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be
at
> >unsettled to severe storm levels beginning on day one near the middle
of
>the
> >day and continuing through day two due to the full halo CME that
resulted
> >from the X8 flare today. Day three may see a return to unsettled to
>active
> >levels.
>
>And here is what Learmonth, Australia has to say:
>
> >Last updated 03 Nov 2003 21:00 UT
>
> >SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 03/53
> >ISSUED AT 03/0025Z NOVEMBER 2003
> >BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.
>
> >Partial halo CMEs were observed from region 486 on 01 and
> >02 November. The first CME, observed on 01 November, was
> >associated with an M3 flare and a TypeII radio sweep. The
> >second CME, observed on 02 November, was associated with
> >an X8 flare and Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. The
> >parameters of these events indicate a possible arrival
> >time around mid-day on 04 November for both the CMEs. This
> >is likely to strengthen the solar wind stream and raise
> >geomagnetic activity to storm leveles on 04 and 05 November.
> >Minor to severe storm may be observed depending on the
> >orientation of the north-south component of the interplanetary
> >mangnetic field and the strengthening of the solar wind stream.
>
>
> >INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
> >DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
> >FROM 04-05 NOVEMBER 2003
> >_____________________________________________________________
>
> >GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
> >04 Nov: Minor to major storm with possibility of severe storm.
> >05 Nov: Minor to major storm.
>
>"Full halo" is a _good_ thing---well . . . at least for the aurora
>enthusiast. :) I agree with Learmonth---I think that these two CME's are
>going to interact in a "constructive fashion," making for a more
>pronounced effect [of either by itself]. So, I am putting out a level 5
>alert for the evening of the 4th (Tuesday), and a level 4 alert for the
>evening of the 5th, with the potential for a (significantly) higher
level
>of activity---particularly on the 4th.
>
> I the way of "aurora news": Thanks very much for the reports of
>aurora sighting(s)! This past storm was positively _*AMAZING*_!! This
was
>the third largest flare _ever_ recorded (at X17.2)---and the aurora was
>spotted in . . . you guessed it, TEXAS!! :) (I will try to have a web
link
>up about it . . . soon. I have given up making predictions of when I'll
>have links up; now, I just say "soon." :P :) ) -Good [aurora] hunting!
>
>
>
>
> -John (Styers)
>
>Explanation of alert levels:
>
>Level 1 alert - 40% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and
>Connecticut
>Level 2 alert - 60% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and
>Connecticut
>Level 3 alert - 80% chance of a display visible in Upstate New York and
>Connecticut, possible chance of a visible display in Central
Pennsylvania
>and Ohio.
>Level 4 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and
>Connecticut, 20% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania and
>central Ohio.
>Level 5 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and
>Connecticut, 40% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania and
>central Ohio, and there is the possibility of a visible display in
>London--and on the outside chance, central Europe.
>Level 6 alert - ** chance of a visible display in Upstate New York and
>Connecticut, 60-70% chance of a visible display in central Pennsylvania
>and central Ohio, 20-30% chance of a visible display in London, and
>approximately a 10% chance of a visible display in central Europe.
>Level 7 alert - MAJOR OCCURRENCE, ~80% chance of display in Central
>Pennsylvania and Ohio. Overhead displays possible in central Europe.
>Possibility of visible displays in Texas, Louisiana, and--on very rare
>occasions, Mexico. ( :O )
>
>"**" essentially means, 100%. Now, for various technical reasons, take
>the above estimates, and multiply them by 1/2.
>
> _\|/_
> (o o)
>------------oOO-{_}-OOo------------
>John Styers AA BS MS -One more to go!!
>Geophysical Institute (GI)
>University of Alaska, Fairbanks
>Office #708F
>Office Phone GI: 907-474-5747
>Email: fsjms@aurora.uaf.edu, rhinohug@fifedrum.org
>
>"I am a cart, and I accept that."
>
> -Graffiti on a cart used in demostration(s) in a lab I was teaching
>
>"I may disagree with what you have to say, but I shall defend, to the
>death, your right to say it."
>
> -Voltaire (1694-1778)
>
>
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